This is an interesting post and something I’ve been thinking about for some time. First, since I haven’t posted anything meaningful in a while, I would like to again reiterate that what makes the dCS forum so great to me is (a) the quality of the members, and (b) that (the vast majority of the time) it is a respectful place to exchange ideas.
With that in mind I have a couple simple ideas to share : )
The first idea is from one of the most famous books in business, The Innovator’s Dillema, in which Clayt Christensen explains how, paraphraising, existing incumbents focus on serving their existing (high end) customers, i.e., high end audio, while newer companies with inferior technology (e.g., software-based DACs running on standard, purchased chips) focus on low-end customers (today’s youth) and over time, improve their product, and eventually build a high quality product that takes market share and eventually dethrowns the market leaders.
The second idea relates to “excessive” pricing, and a company I used to cover when I worked on Wall Street (so long ago). It is well known that Gillette employs a highly successful “razor and blades” business model, in which you get the razor for free (or nearly for free) and in exchange, you contribute endless profits to the company by buying expensive, high margin, replacement blades. Many companies use this strategy in other areas of business.
In the early 2000s, it became obvious that the increasing prices of razor blades would eventually lead to a revolt, as most American men either did not want to, or could not afford to, pay $1-3 per shave every day. The increasing price of this proposition (by Gillette), came to be viewed by the male public as greed, which in turn catelyzed capable competitors, which offered a product “just good enough”, which quickly started eating up the Gillette quasi-monopoly on shaving: Dollar Shave Club, Schick, Bevel, etc. emerged and became billion-dollar/hundred million dollar businesses.
And so, just giving my thoughts, in the absence of a years-long thesis, which I don’t have the time to work on: The first challenge to high-end DAC pricing will come from the lower end, software “only” DACs on standard chips, which we now would all laugh at, but will continue to get better over time.
And the second challenge will come from a new technology, AI, which will contribute breakthroughs in DAC processing, and in hardware, and will likely enable lower cost products, possibly at much higher quality.
And so, I do not believe this strategy (below) by high end audio manufacturers is “essential”, or that those products reflect breakthrough innovations that we don’t already enjoy at the Rossini- or Vivaldi- level:
I personally believe that the pricing model is driven largely by greed and gimmicks, in a “seize the moment”–what can I get away with?–opportunity which, except for the uber-wealthy status purchasers, may portend the end of (very) high-priced equipment. In other words, we may be approaching the peak in high-end pricing, after which, only the status purchasers will remain.
For further clarity, I don’t believe that in 10 years, we will all spend $200k on high-end front-ends. I believe that some form of a software AI will have solved or commoditized the solution by then, and that many of us will “abort” the ridiculously priced, for those new products.
Of course, the ultimate outcome will be determined by the pricing strategies of dCS, MSB, Esoteric, Playback Designs, WADAX, and others. So ,we will see : )
Note: This post was written entirely by me, with a little assistance from a nice Italian red wine, but with absolutely no assitance from ChatGPT, or any other NLP model or bot, in case @PAR tries to get me kicked off of the forum… again… ; )
Just kidding Pete. With affection, from New York City,
Richard
https://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Change-Business/dp/0062060244